It is difficult for sea freight to not rise! The surge in U.S. imports continues to drive global shipping imbalances! Inventory replenishment will continue until 2022
The surge in U.S. imports has led to the chaos of global container shipping. Since 2019, U.S. imports have increased by 10% annually, while other trades have grown moderately. Low inventories, a strong US economy, and shippers who don't want out-of-stocks or empty shelves make demand prospects maintain strong growth until at least the beginning of 2022.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea Intelligence Maritime Analysis, said that the tight supply of container ships is entirely the result of North American demand. Citing data from the Container Trade Statistics Bureau (CTS), it stated that since September 2020, the monthly new demand in North America alone has increased by about 500,000 TEU over the same period in 2019. Although global container ship demand as of May 2021 is flat compared to 2019, North American demand has grown 10% annually since then.
This growth is most pronounced in the Trans-Pacific region. CTS data shows that from June 2020 to May 2021, monthly TEU imports from Greater China and Southeast Asia into the West Coast of the United States were on average 29% higher than the same period in 2019.
The latest issue of the Baltic Shipping Exchange and Freightos Global Container Freight Index (Freightos Baltic Index) shows that the Asia-Northern Europe freight index has almost no change, at US$13,208 per 40 feet (an increase of 0.1%), compared to only 1679 in the same period last year. Dollar. However, in fact, very few short-term businesses are shipped at these rates, and many shippers need to pay an additional premium of about $4,000 to $5,000 to avoid equipment shortages and shipments.
For trans-Pacific shippers, the situation is equally grim. All-inclusive rates (total freight rates) have soared, and shipping spaces (especially those leading to US West Coast ports) are also very difficult to secure. According to the FBX index, the freight rate that had just dropped in the last period has soared. The basic spot rate to the west coast of the United States is $6,564 per 40 feet, up 12% from last week, and the rate to the east coast is $10,503 per 40 feet. This is an increase of 7% over the previous week.
Last week, the transportation demand in China's export container shipping market remained high. Following July 16, the Shanghai Shipping Exchange's Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index broke the 4000-point mark for the first time to 4054.42 points. On July 23, the latest The index for the first period was 4100.00 points, up 1.12%
For European routes, due to factors such as the rebound of the epidemic in Europe and the unblocking of the British epidemic, the overall demand is at a high level. In addition, some ports have been congested due to extreme weather; the utilization rate of the space is close to the full-load level; the freight rate to the basic port market (sea and ocean surcharges) is 7127 USD/TEU. For Mediterranean routes, the freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharge) to the basic port market is US$6,961/TEU. For North American routes, the market is in the traditional peak season for transportation; coupled with the intensified epidemic of mutant strains, the market's demand for transportation continues to remain high. However, the stagnant container pressure, poor transportation turnover, and port congestion caused by the epidemic have yet to show signs of effective relief, and the transportation dilemma has not been substantially changed.
Monroe of Jon Monroe Consulting in the United States said: "The current problem is that the demand is too hot and the backlog is too much." Some factories in China cannot deliver goods. One factory has more than 100 containers of products trapped and cannot be shipped.
BCOs are increasingly turning to NVOCC to fulfill their contracts. In turn, they are also using the chartering market to obtain capacity. In fact, there are reports that container ship owners who seized the opportunity received more than the value of the ship in daily round-trip voyages.
