Shipping industry revenue peaks and will decline in 2022.
According to data, the predicament of the global supply chain is alleviating, at least it has stopped getting worse.
According to Bloomberg data, since the Port of Los Angeles announced in October that it imposed fines on carriers who stayed for too long, the number of containers stranded in the Port of Los Angeles for more than 9 days has been reduced by about one-third.
Shipping and retail executives said that the backlog of US ports is expected to be cleared in early 2022, as the holiday shopping season is over, and many factories in China will be shut down for a week due to the Lunar New Year in February and output has slowed.
Global shipping industry revenue peaks and will decline in 2022, Moody's lowers market expectations
Recently, the internationally renowned rating agency Moody's (Moody's) downgraded the outlook of the global shipping industry from "positive" to "stable".
The agency also predicts that after this year's outstanding performance, the total EBITDA of the global shipping industry will decline in 2022, but it will still be much higher than the level before the outbreak.
Moody's stated in an analysis report that the shipping industry's market conditions are "still healthy", but in the next 12-18 months, "it is unlikely to be better than the current one."
Daniel Harlid, vice president and senior analyst at Moody's, said: "The revenue of container ships and dry bulk carriers has reached record levels, but this revenue will decline from the peak, but will remain high. Limited in 2022 The delivery of new ships will help keep freight rates at a high level."
Moody's believes that the consolidation of liner companies will contribute to the stability of the container shipping industry. In 2008, the capacity of the world's top five liner companies only accounted for 38% of the entire container shipping industry, but this year it has increased to 65%.
Regarding the market supply and demand outlook, Moody's believes that although the current transportation demand is still high and will continue to be strong in 2022, it is expected that the growth rate will slow down, the growth of supply and demand will basically remain balanced, and the growth of demand may be slightly higher than the growth of capacity.
However, in 2022, the capital expenditure of shipping companies will continue to increase, mainly due to stricter and stricter environmental regulations implemented in the industry. Moody's stated that the demand for newer and more energy-efficient ships will still be the main theme in 2022, and shipping companies will spend a lot of money to renew their fleets.
In addition, according to the statistics of Drewry, the profit of the global container shipping industry this year is expected to reach 150 billion U.S. dollars, setting a new historical record. In 2020, this figure is only 25.4 billion U.S. dollars.
In early November, the container throughput of China's major ports fell by 7.4%
In early November, the container throughput of China's eight major ports fell by 7.4% year-on-year. The export container volume of the eight ports fell by 5.7% year-on-year, and the inland container volume fell by 12%.
In early November, Dalian, Tianjin, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo and other ports had to be temporarily closed due to bad weather.
The cargo throughput of major coastal ports fell by 5.5% year-on-year, and the export cargo throughput fell by 5.9%. Crude oil shipments in major coastal ports also fell by 11.9% year-on-year, of which Dalian Port grew by more than 20%, and port inventory fell by 4.6%.
At the beginning of November, cargo throughput and container volume in the three major Yangtze River ports, Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing dropped by 12.2% and 13.6% respectively.
In order to ensure the stability of the global supply chain, the efforts made by various countries
As a major exporter of goods, China is constantly improving the port infrastructure and enhancing the automation of port terminals. Through the stable and efficient operation of 7X24 hours all year round, the exported goods can be shipped out efficiently and safely.
We have made every effort to ensure the stability of the global supply chain, especially at home, which we can control. Internationally, China has also actively responded to the call of the United Nations and made positive contributions.
Recently, the Ministry of Transport of China officially issued the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Transportation Services" (referred to as the "Plan"). A modern comprehensive transportation service system that is cost-effective, open and shared, green and intelligent, safe and reliable.
As a country with huge import volume, the Biden government has also adopted 24H operations recently, and has also speeded up the detention fees of container ports. The operation of the terminal has also received good results!
The United Nations is also advancing maritime stakeholders, data sharing, and jointly promoting the normalization of the global supply chain!
