The impact of the epidemic in the past two years has made the "Black Friday" quieter, and the classic opening of the US "Black Friday" in previous years seems to be gone forever. Christmas is approaching, but the supply chain bottleneck caused by port congestion and shortage of drivers is still continuing, and even Tesla can't sit still. In recent times, many American Tesla customers have experienced several months of delivery delays, which caused them to pay for car rental and ride-hailing apps out of their pockets. Supply chain issues have afflicted the US consumer market for a long time.
Behind the delivery delays are continued port restrictions and rising transportation costs. What's more worrying is that this situation shows no signs of easing. Deutsche Bank's analysis shows that the average container price of Maersk and HapagLloyd, the world's two largest shipping companies, may rise by 30% in 2022.
"Washington Post" interviewed a spokesperson of the American Santa Claus Clothing Company in a recent report. The company originally planned to arrive in August and there is no news about the delay of the goods. "There are many needed items still installed at sea. In the container".
In mid-November, the number of ships queuing in the berthing and waiting areas of the two major gateway ports on the west coast of the United States, the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach in California, reached 83. "This is definitely the largest single supply chain disruption we have ever encountered. The current logistics capacity is only 50%-60% of the pre-epidemic capacity." said Matt Gordon, CEO of Centerline Logistics.
In order to supplement the supply of goods, many manufacturers have to choose another route-air freight. The doll toy manufacturer Ty has chartered more than 150 flights between China and the United States, flying 9,700 kilometers to transport products, and the cost of each flight is between 1.5 million and 2 million US dollars.
In fact, many companies are already facing the issue of suspension of flights and price increases. For example, the shipping alliance THE Alliance plans to suspend a quarter of the Asia-Europe route in early December, and another German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd plans to increase the rate of this route by 70%. Taking a container with a length of 40 feet as the international unit of measurement as an example, from December 1st, Hapag-Lloyd's FAK (uniform freight rate) from Asia to Northern Europe will increase by US$2,000 to US$4,890.
In addition, freight rates in Southeast Asia have also risen sharply, and a hard-to-find container has begun to appear in some Southeast Asian ports. According to the combing of some market freight forwarding companies and the newly launched price increase notices of many shipping companies, sea freight in Southeast Asia is beginning to take off! It is reported that the reason for the surge may be related to the cancellation of multiple flights in Southeast Asia. The reasons for the recent price increase in the industry are as follows:
The US shipping line also has the risk of a large-scale suspension. Due to port congestion, Wanhai Shipping said before that it was transferring vessels from its six Asia-Western US routes to its intra-Asia routes. Zim has worked with Wanhai to divert ships on the Asia-US West Coast route and suspend its express service to Los Angeles for at least seven weeks.
The following is the price increase notice issued this week by CMA CGM's CNC, which focuses on the Asian market:
From Shekou Port to Bangkok and Laem Chabang Port in Thailand, the price increases by USD350/700/700
From Shekou to Incheon, Busan and other ports, the direct price increase will be USD500/1000/1000
Soaring transportation costs have troubled importers and exporters for more than a year. According to data from the logistics website Freightos, the cost of renting containers for cargo from Asia has risen sharply in the past year. The average price of 40-foot containers from China to Northern Europe has risen from around US$2,000 to US$14,000.
And such growth may put more pressure on businesses and further push up prices because of the extreme mismatch between the surge in demand and the actual supply of transportation capacity. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) wrote in the recently published "Maritime Review of 2021" report that before the disruption of the maritime supply chain, port restrictions and terminal inefficiency issues are resolved, in the next year, global consumers will The price index will rise sharply.
According to the United Nations Trade and Development Council, almost all container shipping routes have set a record for container freight. If the current level of container freight continues for a long period of time, by 2023, global imported commodity prices may increase by 11% over the current level, and the consumer price index will increase by 1.5%.
The report also stated that the soaring container freight will increase production costs, thereby raising the prices of goods and services, and have a negative impact on the national economy, especially for small countries and underdeveloped countries that are highly dependent on trade in consumption and production. High freight rates will also affect low-value-added commodities such as furniture, textiles, clothing and leather products. The production of these commodities is usually scattered in low-wage economies far away from major consumer markets. UNCTAD predicts that consumer prices in these categories may rise by 10.2%.
Although the cost is high, retailers have already worked hard for the supply of goods. Manufacturers of footwear and apparel brands such as Nike, Adidas, Hasbro, Levi's, and UA have also chosen to use air transport instead of sea transport to bypass congested ports in the United States.
Under the influence of supply chain disruption, another manifestation of short supply is price increases. KPMG analyst Linda Ellet said that rising costs will affect profits, and supply chain issues will affect the supply of goods, leaving room for large-scale promotional activities. There is not much left. Aurelian Ditohit, a senior industry consultant at Allianz Research, gave a rough figure. According to estimates, during the "Black Five" period this year, consumers are expected to pay 5%-17% more for toys, clothing, home appliances, etc. cost of.
Right now, the emergence of a new strain of "Omi Keron" has exacerbated concerns about global economic recovery. Wang Peng, associate professor of Renmin University of China, believes that if the virus spreads on a large scale, it may affect the global supply chain and many production sites in the industrial chain, and certain goods and certain supply chain industrial chains will appear in the short term. Imbalance between supply and demand. More extreme weather and the risk of outbreaks of new crown cases may also cause blockages in the supply chain again.
The high freight has already attracted the attention of relevant departments. Due to the substantial increase in profits in recent months, shipping companies have been accused of colluding over rates. The European Commission, US authorities and the UK competition watchdog are all reviewing the industry, but no action has yet been taken.
Many people are also trying to solve the problem. Esben Poulsson, president of the International Chamber of Shipping, said in an interview last week that the new container ships are being built in an orderly manner and will significantly expand the existing capacity in the next 24-36 months.
However, Poulsson also said that there are still some lingering problems in the shipping industry, and it is difficult to restore normal operations. For example, labor shortages have made it difficult for seafarers to transfer and the progress of seafarers' full vaccination has been very slow. It is understood that as most countries continue to implement travel restrictions to curb the spread of the new crown virus, which makes it difficult for some seafarers to travel between ships, workplaces and countries of residence, coupled with difficulties in switching, some transportation tasks cannot be completed smoothly.
Poulsson also emphasized that when many countries require full vaccinations for COVID-19, the number of COVID-19 vaccines available to seafarers is very limited, which makes the situation worse.
