With the increase in demand before the holiday and the early arrival of the peak season, European and American ports will usher in a surge in Asian imports, which will intensify congestion in seaports and inland hubs. It is expected that market tensions will not improve in the short term, but will worsen; shipping capacity will increase. Tension and shortage of equipment increase. Moreover, the large number of additional ships also bodes badly for the reliability of the trans-Pacific eastbound shipping schedule.
At present, market demand exceeds supply, and shipping prices have soared. Suspension of flights and insufficient equipment supply made the situation worse. The carriers have overbooked and have begun to restrict the acceptance of bookings or arrange to drop containers. The pain is that shippers will also face major shipping companies that have begun to charge additional fees for port congestion and surge in demand. The GRI has been implemented on August 1, and the PSS will be implemented on September 1. (Check the article: The peak season is coming! The price hike in August is coming! Major shipping companies have begun to levy high surcharges, and freight rates continue to rise!) It is worth noting that some carriers no longer accept intermodal bookings.
A map released on August 2 by seapexplorer, a container transportation platform created by logistics giant Kuehne+Nagel, shows that there are 360 ships stranded in ports around the world, and nearly 120 ports have reported problems such as congestion. Highlights the current ultra-high pressure scenario in container ports around the world.
According to the latest data from the signal platform of the Port of Los Angeles on August 2, the current situation in Southern California has deteriorated sharply, with 16 container ships berthing at anchorages and 12 container ships waiting to be anchored outside the port. The average waiting time for berth increased sharply from 4.8 days on July 30 to 5.4 days, which is a bad sign. (Check the previous article: The US West offer has reached 32,000 US dollars? 80 container ships are waiting for berths! US ports are facing the peak season and are again stuck in congestion "stalemate")
According to Drewry's latest blank voyage tracking data, on major routes such as trans-Pacific, trans-Atlantic, Asia-Northern Europe, and the Mediterranean, 24 voyages out of a total of 496 booked voyages from week 31 to 34 were blocked. Cancellation, the cancellation rate is 5%.
In the next 4 weeks, THE Alliance announced the cancellation of 11.5 voyages, followed by 2M and Ocean Alliance announced the cancellation of 7 and 5.5 voyages respectively.
The peak summer season is now putting further pressure on the already overwhelmed supply chain. As the carrier reduces the contract allocation every week, the shipper and the BCO will have to accept high freight and various additional surcharges and insurance premiums to ensure that the goods are shipped as shipped.
It is expected that in the next few months, as operators add new services and deploy additional loading vessels to meet peak season demand, the on-time rate may further decline. According to the monthly global liner performance report released by Sea-Intelligence, the on-time rate of flights to the West of the United States in June dropped from 23.5% in May to 21.4%, while the on-time rate of flights to the East of the United States fell from 28.6% to 26.5%. This is the lowest number ever.
The entire supply chain associated with US ports, including shipping schedules, marine terminals, truck turnover, equipment availability, and rail services from seaports to inland rail hubs, are all under pressure due to record or near-record imports for 12 consecutive months.
Ship congestion in Southern California ports has increased, and the waiting time for ships has increased to 5.4 days. In the Port of Oakland, the port has been congested with ships waiting for berths to be a problem. The situation in the Northwest Port Alliance in Seattle and Port Tacoma, New York, New Jersey, and Savannah is fine.
The Southern California terminal operator stated that the shipping company is already preparing to open two new trans-Pacific routes calling Long Beach, and the carrier is asking every week whether these terminals can carry the additional loading ships they plan to deploy in August.
According to the Global Port Tracking Report released by the American Retail Federation and Hackett Associates every month, retailers expect U.S. imports to increase by 9.4% year-on-year in August and 2.5% year-on-year in September. Although retailers expect U.S. imports to fall by 3.7% in October and 2% in November, it should be noted that the global port tracking agency has revised its monthly forecasts in every report so far this year. According to PIERS data, the actual US imports from Asia in the first half of 2021 have soared 38% year-on-year, and an increase of 24.5% over the first six months of 2019.
