On the first day after the Mid-Autumn Festival, commodity futures prices rose like a rainbow, and the black series skyrocketed. Coke and coking coal futures rose sharply. Coking coal rose by nearly 9%, and coke rose by more than 6%. This led to a breakthrough in steel mill futures and iron ore. Nearly 4%, after a rapid rebound, it temporarily rested below 700 yuan, while rebar and hot coil futures both approached the 5700 and 5800 yuan mark.
On September 22, the domestic steel market prices were generally stable and strong, and the price of plain billet in Tangshan was stable at 5230 yuan/ton. In the morning, futures fluctuated, spot prices rose, and downstream rigid and speculative demand focused on purchasing low-priced resources; in the afternoon, futures rose, spot prices firmed, end customers purchased on demand, spot traders sold in low-price ranges, and prices were raised. Traders stopped orders and closed warehouses, and market transactions in steel mills improved significantly.
According to the tracking of Steel.com, on September 22, domestic construction steel prices increased by 20-190 yuan/ton; among them, Hangzhou Zhongtian reported 5790 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; Beijing Hegang reported 5500 yuan/ton, an increase 190 yuan/ton; Guangzhou Guanggang reported 5980 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. Domestic hot-rolled coil prices are stable to moderately strong; among them, Shanghai Benxi Iron and Steel reported 5800 yuan/ton, stable; Tangshan Anfeng reported 5720 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Foshan Liugang reported 5700 yuan/ton, stable. Domestic plate prices are stable to moderately strong; among them, Jiangyin Hengrun reported 5700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Domestic cold-rolled coil prices are stable to moderate to strong, of which Shanghai Benxi Iron and Steel reported 6,450 yuan/ton, stable.
According to monitoring data, the average price of Ф25mm grade 3 rebar in key domestic cities is 5557 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan; the average price of Ф6.5mm high-line steel in key domestic cities is 6,069 yuan, an increase of 36 yuan; 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in key domestic cities The average price of plate is 5763 yuan, unchanged; the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key domestic cities is 6,491 yuan, down 3 yuan; the average price of 20mm plate in key domestic cities is 5686 yuan, down 3 yuan.
In terms of steel mills, during the Mid-Autumn Festival, the prices of steel mills in various regions across the country have generally increased, with cumulative increases ranging from 30-200 yuan/ton. Shagang raised its rebar by 150 in late September. The market for steel mills was in high spirits, but downstream steel products Users are fearful of heights, and high-level shipments have slowed down significantly.
In terms of inventory, the current social inventory of steel has seen a "seven consecutive decline", and the weekly inventory digestion rate has been faster since August than in the same period in recent years. According to monitoring data, on September 18, the social stock of steel in 29 key cities across the country was 12.464 million tons, a decrease of 237,000 tons from last week, a decrease of 1.87%; after seven consecutive declines, it fell by 1.141 million tons, a decrease of more than 8.38 %. However, the overall inventory of steel mills is relatively high. In late August, the steel inventory of China Steel Association member companies was 13.43 million tons, 1 million tons higher than the same period last year, and 1.2-1.8 million tons higher than 2017-2019.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the issuance of the "Plan for Improving the Dual Control System for Energy Consumption Intensity and Total Volume." Implementing dual control of energy consumption intensity and total amount (hereinafter referred to as dual control of energy consumption) is an important institutional arrangement to implement the requirements of ecological civilization construction, promote energy conservation and consumption reduction, and promote high-quality development. It is proposed that by 2025, the dual control system of energy consumption will be more complete, the allocation of energy resources will be more reasonable, and the utilization efficiency will be greatly improved. By 2030, the dual control system for energy consumption will be further improved, the intensity of energy consumption will continue to drop significantly, the total energy consumption will be reasonably controlled, and the energy structure will be more optimized. By 2035, the optimal allocation of energy resources and the overall conservation system will be more mature and finalized, which will strongly support the achievement of the goal of steady and steady reduction of carbon emissions after reaching the peak. Recently, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hebei, Shandong, Guangxi, Guangdong and other places have successively restricted production, suspended production or started overhauls, involving first-line steel plants, sintering and blast furnace installations, and some areas have received notices of curtailment and control of production.
From the current point of view, the expected increase in steel prices in the later period is still strong, mainly due to the continuous increase in production restrictions and the continued contraction of the supply side in the later period. At the same time, the increase in bi-coke supply is limited, and downstream power plants are still purchasing difficulties, resulting in costs. The end continues to remain high, and some are still rising, increasing costs. In addition, the phased demand starts, the current market speculation and terminal purchase sentiment are still acceptable, and the phased increase in transactions still supports the price.
Regarding the trend in the fourth quarter, we believe that there is a high probability that domestic steel prices will fluctuate upwards before the end of November. However, with the weakening of demand and the weakening of cost support, it is necessary to guard against the risk of steel prices plummeting after December.
