Since the beginning of the year, with the gradual recovery of the global economy, the global shipping industry has also been in full swing, and shipping prices have risen even more.
According to statistics, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index, which reflects the overall trend of global shipping prices, has risen from 1,374 points at the beginning of this year to 3154 points today, an increase of more than 130%.
And if you start from the lowest point of 393 points during the epidemic last year, the increase is more than 700%.
Affected by the skyrocketing international freight rates, domestic foreign trade companies have also experienced a "hard to find a box" situation.
According to CCTV Finance, the person in charge of a freight forwarding company said that since April this year, the container capacity of international routes has been in short supply, and the freight rate has increased by about 5 times compared with the same period in 2019.
Especially for European and American routes, if you want to book a space, you basically have to be about one month in advance.
However, market analysts said bluntly that such a rise in freight rates is not high.
Mark Williams, general manager of shipping consulting firm Shipping Strategy, said during a panel discussion at the TradeWinds Singapore Shipowners Forum 2021 earlier this month:
But to be honest, it is not a "super cycle" yet.
"Super cycle" refers to the uncharacteristic price of a certain product or service within a long period of time, and there is a long-term and large-scale increase. The main reason is usually related to strong demand and low supply.
Rashpal Bhatti, BHP Billiton's vice president of shipping and supply chain, also expressed similar views when attending the same panel discussion.
He believes that although shipping prices are at a high level for many years, they have not yet reached the peak of the previous bull market.
Regarding the reasons for the soaring freight rates, CNBC believes that firstly, the boom in commodities has promoted transportation demand. At the same time, the recovery of the economy in some regions from the new crown is also one of the reasons.
In addition, some people in the shipping industry pointed out that low efficiency and port congestion may also lead to increased shipping costs.
In an interview, Mark Williams clearly pointed out that government policies and macroeconomics are the core of the "super" market, because countries are injecting cash into the economic system through stimulus measures, and this is a "critical lever" that drives economic growth. .
In addition, he added that the enthusiasm for ordering new bulk carriers has not appeared, and some old ships are also being eliminated, all of which help shipping prices remain high.
In fact, the impact of skyrocketing shipping prices is not limited to the transportation industry.
Earlier articles on Wall Street have pointed out that Deutsche Bank's distressed debt trader Mark Spehn has been taking advantage of the sluggish global shipping rates since 2016.
The Israeli shipping company Zim Integrated Shipping Services' equity, bonds and bank loan products were purchased at a substantial discount, and the total amount of related bets was nearly 100 million U.S. dollars.
Driven by strong demand in Europe and the United States, global container freight rates have soared. The market value of Zim, which was successfully listed in January this year, has doubled. This has also allowed Deutsche Bank to reap a "windfall" worth US$1 billion.
According to statistics, this transaction is one of Deutsche Bank's biggest victories since the "big short" transaction of short US subordinated bonds.
